Recorded run · Career · 2026-09-15
Both doors are open this quarter: a promotion where I am now, or an offer somewhere else. Which do I take?
Two candidate answers were submitted. Decider picked one and reported how close the call was. The reasoning below is the run's own output, published verbatim.
Take the promotion. I already know the people and the product, so I am useful on day one, and I can look outside again next year.
Take the offer elsewhere. A new environment resets my learning curve, and the title is the one I have been trying to earn for two years.
Option B is the stronger choice because it directly advances a specific, long-held career goal: earning the desired title that has been pursued for two years. A new environment resets the learning curve, which can drive skill acquisition, broaden networks and perspective, and correct a market-positioning gap. An external offer also tends to signal stronger market value and may carry better compensation and growth opportunities than an internal promotion, where the organization already knows the candidate’s value. Choosing Option B avoids the opportunity cost of postponing that goal again and reduces the risk of stagnation or status-quo bias. Option A has real advantages: familiarity, immediate usefulness, lower transition and onboarding risk, existing social capital, and the possibility of looking outside again next year. However, those benefits are mainly short-term or risk-reducing, and the “next year” optionality is speculative because strong external offers may not recur and delaying growth can create the worst of both worlds. That said, if the external role were only a lateral title grab without substance, staying could be preferable, and the new environment does carry short-term performance risk. On balance, Option B aligns better with the explicit two-year aspiration and long-term career capital.
How to read this
The confidence value is calibrated against outcomes, not a vibe: on JudgeBench, judgements Decider rates 90%+ were correct 99.6% of the time, and the 80–90% band 94.0%. The lowest band flags near-ties where either choice is defensible — an answer, not a failure. Full tables: the product page.
This page is a recorded run published as a worked example. It is not a live call, and nothing here is charged. Raw judgements behind our numbers are published at api.turingcorp.net.
Try your own two options All Career examples
Prefer the other side? Option A is right there above — the point of a calibrated reading is that you can tell a decisive call from a coin flip.